Prediction markets and other geopolitical forecasting methods are the stuff of science, finance, and statistics, not fantasy. Yet decision-makers in the U.S. government, except for the intelligence community, have yet to embrace experimentation with these types of markets.
Politics & National Security
One of the great benefits of democracy is that politics impacts policy, even national security policy. Elections, confirmation battles, and legislative fights all affect the way the United States balances its competing priorities, interests and values as it conducts foreign and security affairs. National security professionals would therefore be wise to keep an eye on what candidates are saying about national security matters, how they are faring in the polls, and on which way the winds in Congress seem to be blowing the national security issues of the day.