Even if Iran’s government survives the current round of protests, make no mistake: The Islamic Republic is weak.
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In light of the Office of Foreign Assets Control's Nov. 20 identification of those connected to the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps printing of counterfeit Yemeni money, there are two actors worth paying attention to: Iran and the EU.
A case study in assessing the benefit of sanctions.
What should Europe do to save the deal?
The scope of new measures related to Iran are far more limited than President Trump’s statement would indicate.
Trump can exercise his right to decertify the Iran deal due to policy considerations, not material breach, thanks to Congress.
Trump's focus on the Iran deal misses the bigger issue: the need for a U.S. strategy to persuade Tehran to play a constructive role in the region.
To have serious consequences for the JCPOA, decertification requires an additional step: Congress or the White House would have to reimpose sanctions on Tehran.
Countering Iran requires gains “on the ground” from tangible measures such as sanctions and, where necessary, the use of force, and also requires gaining the moral high ground of legitimacy in the war of ideas.