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The combination of a weakening strategic situation and an increasingly despotic regime has left Xi with few constraints on his power, leaving many to fear that he could risk military adventurism as a diversion from China’s deteriorating situation.
While wargames offer the possibility of exploring the potential outcomes of a U.S.-China war, they have several shortcomings that must be considered in order to more incisively explore key issues such as deterrence and escalation management.
Xi secures third presidential term following 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party; Chinese military rehearses large-scale amphibious landings and headhunts Western pilots; U.S. releases China-focused National Security Strategy and strengthens Indo-Pacific cooperation; and more.
America’s drug industry is poised to face the same manufacturing crisis the semiconductor industry faces today: a supply chain mired with chokepoints in East Asia that pose direct risks to U.S. national security and economic growth.
Shinzo Abe leaves behind an Indo-Pacific legacy; U.S. Navy FONOPS and Pelosi’s Taiwan visit draw China’s ire; unsafe maneuvers a matter of policy for the Chinese military; and more.
The Biden administration releases its Indo-Pacific Strategy; Australia protests Chinese warship lasing of Australian maritime patrol aircraft in Australia’s exclusive economic; and more.
Japan boosts defense spending and emphasizes defense cooperation with the U.S. and Australia as the possibility of a Taiwan emergency grows, while the U.S. makes an economic push in Southeast Asia, and countries in the region continue their maritime defense buildups.
The U.S. needs to act now to secure the technological dimensions of a looming Taiwan crisis, or risk losing far more than the island.
China will focus on its own security while pushing narratives of American decline.
An American president may soon face a moment of truth over Washington’s vague defense commitments to Taiwan as risks grow that Asia’s oldest frozen conflict will thaw.