Every reader of Lawfare (and indeed, most non-readers) should be interested in this new report from the National Intelligence Council, “Global Trends 2030: Alternate Worlds.” The analysis identifies a series of “mega-trends” such as individual empowerment”" and the “food, water, energy nexus” to posit, broadly, four alternate futures: Stalled Engines; Fusion; Gini-Out-of-the-Bottle; and Nonstate World. Each is a fascinating path we might take. Here, for example, is what the report has to say about an anticipated Tectonic Shift between now and 2030 (one of a half dozen they project):
Wider Access to Lethal and Disruptive Technologies: A wider spectrum of instruments of war—especially precision-strike capabilities, cyber instruments, and bioterror weapony—will become accessible. Individuals and small groups will have the capability to perpetrate large-scale violence and disruption—a capability formerly the monopoly of states.
This is a must read.