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Global Trends 2030: Alternate Worlds

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Tuesday, December 11, 2012 at 3:53 PM

Every reader of Lawfare (and indeed, most non-readers) should be interested in this new report from the National Intelligence Council, “Global Trends 2030: Alternate Worlds.”  The analysis identifies a series of “mega-trends” such as individual empowerment”” and the “food, water, energy nexus” to posit, broadly, four alternate futures:  Stalled Engines; Fusion; Gini-Out-of-the-Bottle; and Nonstate World.  Each is a fascinating path we might take.  Here, for example, is what the report has to say about an anticipated Tectonic Shift between now and 2030 (one of a half dozen they project):

Wider Access to Lethal and Disruptive Technologies: A wider spectrum of instruments of war—especially precision-strike capabilities, cyber instruments, and bioterror weapony—will become accessible. Individuals and small groups will have the capability to perpetrate large-scale violence and disruption—a capability formerly the monopoly of states.

This is a must read.